Tragedies Strike Cyclists in May
May was a tragic month for three
cyclists in Tennessee. It started at the
3 State 3 Mtn Challenge in Chattanooga during a descent from Lookout Mountain
on a cold rainy day. Antonio Jose
Desousa Ribeiro, 49 of Jacksonville FL, failed to remain in his lane, crossed
into the opposing lane and was struck by a motor vehicle. On May 23rd Jacob Billings, 14 of Smithville, TN, was
making a steep descent on Casey Cove Rd and also crossed into the opposing lane
and was struck by a motor vehicle.
In Knoxville, also on May 23rd,
a 16 year old was trying to cross Western Ave at Sullivan Rd. The intersection is a difficult intersection
to cross, even for experienced cyclists. Western Ave is an arterial road and there are several
subdivisions on both sides of Western and Victor Ashe Park is just north of
Western. There are many reasons a young
cyclist might be trying to cross Western … visit friends, go to the park etc.
Is cycling becoming more dangerous
in TN? No. While each one is tragic, there are
relatively few cycling fatalities in Tennessee each year. The law of small numbers applies as a certain
degree of randomness allows the numbers to fluctuate. When we look at the fatality numbers, we need
to remember the longevity numbers. A
National Institute of Health study published last year concludes that leisure
time physical activity, for example riding a bicycle two hours a week,
increases life expectancy by 3.2 years. Do
the math; riding a bicycle is more likely to increase your life than reduce it.
Was
cycling safer in 2010 and more dangerous in other years? No, it's just number randomness. There is a positive analysis in the TN
numbers as we all know there is been a significant increase in the number of
riders since 2005, but the number of fatalities has remained relatively
stable. This is also true on the
national level. On the national level
the trends are more evident as because of the larger numbers there is less
randomness and the graph lines are smoother which indicate the trends in a more
statistically valid way.
This highlights one of the more difficult aspects of cycle advocacy. How do we agitate for safer infrastructure and more educated motorists and cyclists without making cycling appear more dangerous than it really is?
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